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Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) 财务分析 | 估值·财报 | 100Baggers.club

Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data management products and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Software segment offers pre-configured decision management solution designed for various business problems or processes, such as marketing, account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, collection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also provides FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to analytics to be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Fair Isaac Corporation markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.

深度研究阅读完整报告

FICO(FICO)股票深度分析 — 制度垄断的自毁悖论：嵌入越深，被撬动越痛

垄断美国信用体系近70年，FICO的护城河为何越深，被颠覆的系统性风险反而越大？市场只看到其垄断定价权，却忽视了这种“自毁悖论”下的巨大估值陷阱。

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📊 估值

关键估值指标

EV/EBITDA (TTM)

i

Enterprise Value, EBITDA and Ratio

EV/EBIT (TTM)

i

Enterprise Value, EBIT and Ratio

EV/Sales (TTM)

i

Enterprise Value, Revenue and Ratio

P/E Ratio (TTM)

i

Market Cap, Net Income and Ratio

P/B Ratio (Quarterly)

i

Market Cap, Book Value and Ratio

FCF Yield (TTM)

i

FCF, Enterprise Value and Yield

PR Profit Ratio (PPM)

i

PE Ratio, ROE and Profit Ratio (PR = PE / ROE)

📈 成长

营收、盈利和每股成长指标

Revenue (Quarterly)

i

Quarterly Revenue

Revenue/Share (Quarterly)

i

Revenue Per Share

Net Income (Quarterly)

i

Quarterly Net Income

EPS (Quarterly)

i

Earnings Per Share

Gross Profit/Share (Quarterly)

i

Gross Profit Per Share

OCF/Share (Quarterly)

i

Operating Cash Flow Per Share

FCF/Share (Quarterly)

i

Free Cash Flow Per Share

Operating Leverage (YoY)

i

Change in Operating Income / Change in Revenue

💰 盈利

利润率和净资产收益率

Gross Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Gross Profit and Gross Margin

Operating Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Operating Income and Operating Margin

Net Profit Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Net Income and Net Profit Margin

ROE (TTM)

i

Equity, Net Income and Return on Equity

ROA (TTM)

i

Assets, Net Income and Return on Assets

ROTCE - Return on Tangible Common Equity (TTM)

i

Net Income, Tangible Common Equity and ROTCE

OCF Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Operating Cash Flow and OCF Margin

FCF Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Free Cash Flow and FCF Margin

💵 现金质量

现金流质量和转换指标

OCF/NI Ratio (TTM)

i

Operating Cash Flow, Net Income and Ratio

FCF/NI Ratio (TTM)

i

Free Cash Flow, Net Income and Ratio

OCF/Capex (TTM)

i

Operating Cash Flow, Capex and Coverage Ratio

OCF/SBC (TTM)

i

Operating Cash Flow, SBC and Coverage Ratio

🛡️ 财务韧性

债务、流动性和财务健康度

Debt/Equity (quarterly)

i

Total Debt, Total Equity and Debt/Equity Ratio

EBITDA/Net Debt (TTM)

i

EBITDA, Net Debt and Coverage Ratio

Interest Coverage (TTM)

i

EBIT, Interest Expense and Coverage Ratio

Current Ratio (quarterly)

i

Current Assets, Current Liabilities and Current Ratio

Quick Ratio (quarterly)

i

Quick Assets, Current Liabilities and Quick Ratio

Altman Z-Score

i

Financial Distress Prediction Model

⚙️ 运营与资本效率

资产利用率、营运资本、ROIC和资本效率

ROIC (TTM)

i

NOPAT, Invested Capital and Return on Invested Capital

ROCE - Return on Capital Employed (TTM)

i

EBIT, Capital Employed and Return on Capital Employed

Asset Turnover (TTM)

i

Revenue, Total Assets and Turnover Ratio

CapEx/Depreciation - Investment Intensity (TTM)

i

CapEx, Depreciation and Ratio (>1=Expansion, <1=Contraction)

R&D/Gross Profit - R&D Intensity (TTM)

i

R&D Expenses, Gross Profit and Ratio

SG&A/Revenue - SG&A Efficiency (TTM)

i

SG&A Expenses, Revenue and Ratio

Cash Conversion Cycle (TTM)

i

DSO + DIO - DPO (in days)

DSO - Days Sales Outstanding (TTM)

i

Average Receivables and Days Sales Outstanding

DIO - Days Inventory Outstanding (TTM)

i

Average Inventory and Days Inventory Outstanding

DPO - Days Payables Outstanding (TTM)

i

Average Payables and Days Payables Outstanding

Goodwill/Assets (Quarterly)

i

Goodwill as % of Total Assets

🎁 股东回报

股息、股票回购、稀释和内部人交易活动

Dividend Yield (TTM)

i

Dividend Per Share, Share Price and Dividend Yield

Buyback Yield (TTM)

i

Net Buyback and Buyback Yield

Buyback Yield (3 Years)

i

Net Buyback 3Y and Buyback Yield 3Y

Dilution Rate (1 Year)

i

Current Shares, 1Y Ago Shares and Dilution Rate

Dilution Rate (3 Years)

i

Current Shares, 3Y Ago Shares and Dilution Rate

SBC Offset Rate (TTM)

i

Buyback / Stock-Based Comp and SBC Ratio

Insider Activity Rate (TTM)

i

Insider Net Buying and Activity Rate

利润瀑布图分析

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P

盈利能力指标

Gross Profit Margini毛利率

86.81%

毛利润 = $0.60B

营业收入 = $0.69B

Operating Profit Margini营业利润率

58.19%

营业利润 = $0.40B

营业收入 = $0.69B

EBITDA MarginiEBITDA利润率

58.48%

EBITDA = $0.40B

营业收入 = $0.69B

EBIT MarginiEBIT利润率

57.92%

EBIT = $0.36B

营业收入 = $0.69B

Net Profit Margini净利率

38.23%

净利润 = $0.26B

营业收入 = $0.69B

Pretax Profit Margini税前利润率

51.47%

税前利润 = $0.36B

营业收入 = $0.69B

E

运营效率指标

Interest Coveragei利息保障倍数

7.20x

EBIT (TTM) = $1.15B

利息费用 (TTM) = $0.16B

7.0x

7.3x

7.0x

6.8x

7.2x

SG&A / Revenuei销管费率

20.83%

销售及管理费用 = $0.14B

营业收入 = $0.69B

R&D / Revenuei研发占比

7.79%

研发费用 = $0.05B

营业收入 = $0.69B

R

回报率指标 (TTM)

ROAi总资产回报率

39.12%

净利润 = $0.76B

平均总资产 = $1.94B

ROEi净资产收益率

-47.10%

净利润 = $0.76B

平均股东权益 = $-1.61B

ROICi投入资本回报率

70.29%

NOPAT (TTM) = $0.87B

平均投入资本 = $1.24B

(NOPAT = 营业利润 × (1 - 有效税率))

(平均投入资本 = (本期IC + 去年同期IC) / 2)

Revenue Growthi营收增长率

38.69%

当期营收 = $0.69B

去年同期营收 = $0.50B

+15.0%

+19.8%

+13.7%

+16.4%

+38.7%

Operating Cash Flow/Sharei每股经营现金流

$38.21

经营现金流 = $0.91B

流通股数 = 0.02B

$28.71

$31.81

$32.24

$31.68

$38.21

综合分析

利润表项目	同比增长	当季数据	趋势
营业收入	+38.7%	$0.69B	↑
毛利	+46.1%	$0.60B, 86.81%	↑
营业利润	+63.8%	$0.40B, 58.19%	↑
EBITDA	+63.2%	$0.40B, 58.48%	↑
税前利润	+67.1%	$0.36B, 51.47%	↑
净利润	+62.6%	$0.26B, 38.23%	↑
稀释每股收益	+69.0%	11.14	↑

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L

流动性指标

Current Ratioi流动比率

2.22

健康

流动资产 = $0.90B

流动负债 = $0.41B

Quick Ratioi速动比率

2.22

健康

速动资产 = $0.90B

流动负债 = $0.41B

Cash Ratioi现金比率

0.54

健康

现金及等价物 = $0.22B

流动负债 = $0.41B

Cash Ratio = (Cash + Short-term Investments) / Current Liabilities

L

杠杆指标

Debt to Equityi债务权益比

-1.74

健康

总债务 = $3.66B

总权益 = $-2.10B

Liabilities to Assetsi资产负债率 (总负债)

202.6%

关注

总负债 = $4.15B

总资产 = $2.05B

Equity Multiplieri权益乘数

-0.97

健康

总资产 = $2.05B

总权益 = $-2.10B

E

效率指标

Asset Turnoveri总资产周转率

1.16

健康

营收 (TTM) = $2.26B

平均总资产 = $1.94B

Inventory Turnoveri存货周转率

N/A

正常

营业成本 (TTM) = $0.36B

平均存货 = $0.00B

Receivables Turnoveri应收账款周转率

4.05

正常

营收 (TTM) = $2.26B

平均应收账款 = $0.56B

S

偿债能力

Interest Coveragei利息保障倍数

7.20

健康

EBIT (TTM) = $1.15B

利息费用 (TTM) = $0.16B

Net Debt to EBITDAi净债务/EBITDA

2.96

正常

净债务 = $3.44B

EBITDA (TTM) = $1.16B

Debt Service Coveragei偿债覆盖率

14.89

健康

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

债务偿付 = $-0.06B

V

价值指标

Goodwill %i商誉占比

38.1%

关注

商誉 = $0.78B

总资产 = $2.05B

Working Capital Ratioi营运资本比率

0.24

健康

营运资本 = $0.50B

总资产 = $2.05B

现金流瀑布图

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流入

流出

小计

起止点

C

现金流指标

经营现金流 TTMi

$0.91B

自由现金流 TTMi

$0.89B

FCF = OCF - CapEx

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

资本支出 (TTM) = $-0.01B

自由现金流收益率i

3.74%

关注

FCF (TTM) = $0.89B

市值 = $23.88B

经营现金流/销售比i

40.22%

健康

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

营业收入 (TTM) = $2.26B

Q

质量与覆盖指标

收益质量i

1.19x

正常

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

净利润 (TTM) = $0.76B

现金流/债务比i

0.25x

正常

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

总负债 = $3.66B

短期覆盖率i

2.24x

健康

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

流动负债 = $0.41B

资本支出覆盖率i

61.95x

健康

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

资本支出 (TTM) = $0.01B

E

效率指标

⚡ 比率按USD计算，去除汇率影响

自由/经营现金流比i

98.39%

健康

自由现金流 (TTM) = $0.89B

经营现金流 (TTM) = $0.91B

资本支出/营收比i

0.65%

健康

资本支出 (TTM) = $0.01B

营业收入 (TTM) = $2.26B

净债务/EBITDAi

2.96

正常

净债务 = $3.44B

EBITDA (TTM) = $1.16B

G

增长指标

经营现金流增长率i

198.14%

健康

当期OCF (TTM) = $0.22B

上期OCF = $0.07B

股东盈余i

$0.76B

健康

净利润 (TTM) = $0.76B

+ 折旧摊销 (TTM) = $0.02B

- 资本支出 (TTM) = $-0.01B