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Vistra Corp. (VST) 财务分析 | 估值·财报 | 100Baggers.club

Vistra Corp.

VST

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company. The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia. The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities. It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

深度研究阅读完整报告

Vistra Corp.(VST)股票深度分析 — 可靠发电资产的再定价：AI 电力合同能否变成每股现金？

Vistra 不是普通公用事业，也不是单纯的 AI 电力概念股。本报告拆解 PJM 容量价格、ERCOT 德州资产、Energy Harbor / Lotus 并购、Cogentrix 待交割燃气资产、Comanche Peak 与 AWS 长约，以及这些变量能否穿过债务、资本开支和回购，真正变成每股现金流。

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利润瀑布图分析

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现金流瀑布图

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流入

流出

小计

起止点

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📊 估值

关键估值指标

EV/EBITDA (TTM)

i

Enterprise Value, EBITDA and Ratio

EV/EBIT (TTM)

i

Enterprise Value, EBIT and Ratio

EV/Sales (TTM)

i

Enterprise Value, Revenue and Ratio

P/E Ratio (TTM)

i

Market Cap, Net Income and Ratio

P/B Ratio (Quarterly)

i

Market Cap, Book Value and Ratio

FCF Yield (TTM)

i

FCF, Enterprise Value and Yield

PR Profit Ratio (PPM)

i

PE Ratio, ROE and Profit Ratio (PR = PE / ROE)

📈 成长

营收、盈利和每股成长指标

Revenue (Quarterly)

i

Quarterly Revenue

Revenue/Share (Quarterly)

i

Revenue Per Share

Net Income (Quarterly)

i

Quarterly Net Income

EPS (Quarterly)

i

Earnings Per Share

Gross Profit/Share (Quarterly)

i

Gross Profit Per Share

OCF/Share (Quarterly)

i

Operating Cash Flow Per Share

FCF/Share (Quarterly)

i

Free Cash Flow Per Share

Operating Leverage (YoY)

i

Change in Operating Income / Change in Revenue

💰 盈利

利润率和净资产收益率

Gross Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Gross Profit and Gross Margin

Operating Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Operating Income and Operating Margin

Net Profit Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Net Income and Net Profit Margin

ROE (TTM)

i

Equity, Net Income and Return on Equity

ROA (TTM)

i

Assets, Net Income and Return on Assets

ROTCE - Return on Tangible Common Equity (TTM)

i

Net Income, Tangible Common Equity and ROTCE

OCF Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Operating Cash Flow and OCF Margin

FCF Margin (TTM)

i

Revenue, Free Cash Flow and FCF Margin

💵 现金质量

现金流质量和转换指标

OCF/NI Ratio (TTM)

i

Operating Cash Flow, Net Income and Ratio

FCF/NI Ratio (TTM)

i

Free Cash Flow, Net Income and Ratio

OCF/Capex (TTM)

i

Operating Cash Flow, Capex and Coverage Ratio

OCF/SBC (TTM)

i

Operating Cash Flow, SBC and Coverage Ratio

🛡️ 财务韧性

债务、流动性和财务健康度

Debt/Equity (quarterly)

i

Total Debt, Total Equity and Debt/Equity Ratio

EBITDA/Net Debt (TTM)

i

EBITDA, Net Debt and Coverage Ratio

Interest Coverage (TTM)

i

EBIT, Interest Expense and Coverage Ratio

Current Ratio (quarterly)

i

Current Assets, Current Liabilities and Current Ratio

Quick Ratio (quarterly)

i

Quick Assets, Current Liabilities and Quick Ratio

Altman Z-Score

i

Financial Distress Prediction Model

⚙️ 运营与资本效率

资产利用率、营运资本、ROIC和资本效率

ROIC (TTM)

i

NOPAT, Invested Capital and Return on Invested Capital

ROCE - Return on Capital Employed (TTM)

i

EBIT, Capital Employed and Return on Capital Employed

Asset Turnover (TTM)

i

Revenue, Total Assets and Turnover Ratio

CapEx/Depreciation - Investment Intensity (TTM)

i

CapEx, Depreciation and Ratio (>1=Expansion, <1=Contraction)

R&D/Gross Profit - R&D Intensity (TTM)

i

R&D Expenses, Gross Profit and Ratio

SG&A/Revenue - SG&A Efficiency (TTM)

i

SG&A Expenses, Revenue and Ratio

Cash Conversion Cycle (TTM)

i

DSO + DIO - DPO (in days)

DSO - Days Sales Outstanding (TTM)

i

Average Receivables and Days Sales Outstanding

DIO - Days Inventory Outstanding (TTM)

i

Average Inventory and Days Inventory Outstanding

DPO - Days Payables Outstanding (TTM)

i

Average Payables and Days Payables Outstanding

Goodwill/Assets (Quarterly)

i

Goodwill as % of Total Assets

🎁 股东回报

股息、股票回购、稀释和内部人交易活动

Dividend Yield (TTM)

i

Dividend Per Share, Share Price and Dividend Yield

Buyback Yield (TTM)

i

Net Buyback and Buyback Yield

Buyback Yield (3 Years)

i

Net Buyback 3Y and Buyback Yield 3Y

Dilution Rate (1 Year)

i

Current Shares, 1Y Ago Shares and Dilution Rate

Dilution Rate (3 Years)

i

Current Shares, 3Y Ago Shares and Dilution Rate

SBC Offset Rate (TTM)

i

Buyback / Stock-Based Comp and SBC Ratio

Insider Activity Rate (TTM)

i

Insider Net Buying and Activity Rate

P

盈利能力指标

Gross Profit Margini毛利率

20.26%

毛利润 = $0.94B

营业收入 = $4.65B

Operating Profit Margini营业利润率

11.32%

营业利润 = $0.53B

营业收入 = $4.65B

EBITDA MarginiEBITDA利润率

26.75%

EBITDA = $1.25B

营业收入 = $4.65B

EBIT MarginiEBIT利润率

11.32%

EBIT = $1.21B

营业收入 = $4.65B

Net Profit Margini净利率

22.11%

净利润 = $1.03B

营业收入 = $4.65B

Pretax Profit Margini税前利润率

26.04%

税前利润 = $1.21B

营业收入 = $4.65B

E

运营效率指标

Interest Coveragei利息保障倍数

2.26x

EBIT (TTM) = $2.57B

利息费用 (TTM) = $1.14B

3.6x

3.0x

1.7x

1.7x

2.3x

SG&A / Revenuei销管费率

8.94%

销售及管理费用 = $0.42B

营业收入 = $4.65B

R&D / Revenuei研发占比

0.00%

研发费用 = $0.00B

营业收入 = $4.65B

R

回报率指标 (TTM)

ROAi总资产回报率

11.72%

净利润 = $2.24B

平均总资产 = $19.11B

ROEi净资产收益率

92.89%

净利润 = $2.24B

平均股东权益 = $2.41B

ROICi投入资本回报率

1.47%

NOPAT (TTM) = $0.27B

平均投入资本 = $18.45B

(NOPAT = 营业利润 × (1 - 有效税率))

(平均投入资本 = (本期IC + 去年同期IC) / 2)

Revenue Growthi营收增长率

-10.00%

当期营收 = $4.65B

去年同期营收 = $5.17B

+85.1%

+15.2%

-10.2%

-68.2%

-10.0%

Operating Cash Flow/Sharei每股经营现金流

$13.74

经营现金流 = $4.67B

流通股数 = 0.34B

$14.27

$12.44

$11.75

$11.98

$13.74

综合分析

利润表项目	同比增长	当季数据	趋势
营业收入	-10.0%	$4.65B	↓
毛利	-38.8%	$0.94B, 20.26%	↓
营业利润	-54.8%	$0.53B, 11.32%	↓
EBITDA	+107.8%	$1.25B, 26.75%	↑
税前利润	+373.0%	$1.21B, 26.04%	↑
净利润	+484.0%	$1.03B, 22.11%	↑
稀释每股收益	+409.7%	2.88	↑

L

流动性指标

Current Ratioi流动比率

0.90

关注

流动资产 = $9.02B

流动负债 = $10.06B

Quick Ratioi速动比率

0.79

关注

速动资产 = $7.99B

流动负债 = $10.06B

Cash Ratioi现金比率

0.07

关注

现金及等价物 = $0.67B

流动负债 = $10.06B

Cash Ratio = (Cash + Short-term Investments) / Current Liabilities

L

杠杆指标

Debt to Equityi债务权益比

3.56

关注

总债务 = $19.91B

总权益 = $5.60B

Liabilities to Assetsi资产负债率 (总负债)

86.4%

关注

总负债 = $35.70B

总资产 = $41.31B

Equity Multiplieri权益乘数

7.38

关注

总资产 = $41.31B

总权益 = $5.60B

E

效率指标

Asset Turnoveri总资产周转率

0.85

正常

营收 (TTM) = $16.21B

平均总资产 = $19.11B

Inventory Turnoveri存货周转率

13.83

健康

营业成本 (TTM) = $14.15B

平均存货 = $1.02B

Receivables Turnoveri应收账款周转率

7.53

正常

营收 (TTM) = $16.21B

平均应收账款 = $2.15B

S

偿债能力

Interest Coveragei利息保障倍数

2.26

关注

EBIT (TTM) = $2.57B

利息费用 (TTM) = $1.14B

Net Debt to EBITDAi净债务/EBITDA

3.48

关注

净债务 = $19.24B

EBITDA (TTM) = $5.53B

Debt Service Coveragei偿债覆盖率

1.76

正常

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

债务偿付 = $2.65B

V

价值指标

Goodwill %i商誉占比

6.8%

健康

商誉 = $2.81B

总资产 = $41.31B

Working Capital Ratioi营运资本比率

-0.03

关注

营运资本 = $-1.04B

总资产 = $41.31B

C

现金流指标

经营现金流 TTMi

$4.67B

自由现金流 TTMi

$2.42B

FCF = OCF - CapEx

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

资本支出 (TTM) = $-2.25B

自由现金流收益率i

4.83%

关注

FCF (TTM) = $2.42B

市值 = $50.20B

经营现金流/销售比i

28.80%

健康

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

营业收入 (TTM) = $16.21B

Q

质量与覆盖指标

收益质量i

2.08x

健康

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

净利润 (TTM) = $2.24B

现金流/债务比i

0.23x

正常

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

总负债 = $19.91B

短期覆盖率i

0.46x

正常

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

流动负债 = $10.06B

资本支出覆盖率i

2.08x

正常

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

资本支出 (TTM) = $2.25B

E

效率指标

⚡ 比率按USD计算，去除汇率影响

自由/经营现金流比i

51.88%

关注

自由现金流 (TTM) = $2.42B

经营现金流 (TTM) = $4.67B

资本支出/营收比i

13.86%

关注

资本支出 (TTM) = $2.25B

营业收入 (TTM) = $16.21B

净债务/EBITDAi

3.48

关注

净债务 = $19.24B

EBITDA (TTM) = $5.53B

G

增长指标

经营现金流增长率i

100.17%

健康

当期OCF (TTM) = $1.20B

上期OCF = $0.60B

股东盈余i

$2.89B

健康

净利润 (TTM) = $2.24B

+ 折旧摊销 (TTM) = $2.90B

- 资本支出 (TTM) = $-2.25B